Comments on: Modeling & Superstructing

By: links for 2009-04-30 « Blarney Fellow

links for 2009-04-30 « Blarney Fellow — Fri, 01 May 2009 00:18:17 +0000

[...] URBEINGRECORDED » Modeling & Superstructing (tags: crowdsourcing future prediction) [...]

By: tom

tom — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 18:14:33 +0000

Noe also that by chasing down outliers, we get to make the future in more interesting ways. Scary outliers are worth preparing against; beautiful outliers are worth
trying to realize.

By: Steve Puma

Steve Puma — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 02:50:59 +0000

Great article! The beauty of the scenario method is that it allows us to deal with the complexity of potential futures by meeting it with more complexity, i.e. human creativity. But it is in a form that the human mind can easily interpret.

Traditional methods of forecasting, based on industrial-age production, require that future predictions are based on past performance. On the other hand, scenario forecasting is inherently future-based, and therefore can account for the “outliers” that will arise by the interaction of many complex forces.

Humans seem to be uniquely qualified for this type of future-based creativity. Augmenting human creativity with computer assistance is the best of both worlds.